Guide

Fundamental analysis: test the business story with numbers

Fundamental analysis connects business structure, financial results and assumed value. It is not a way to predict tomorrow’s quote precisely. NYU teaching material approaches valuation through cash flows, growth and uncertainty.[11](#source-valuation-teaching) The task is to test whether the company story agrees with available data and explicit assumptions, not to find a beautiful ratio.

Start with the source of revenue

Describe product, customer and reason for payment in plain language. Then ask how repeatable receipts are: long contracts, one-off orders, commodity sales or another mechanism. The same revenue growth may mean more customers, higher prices, an acquisition or a currency change. Record constraints such as large-customer dependence, permits, materials and capacity. “New equipment installed” is an observation; “it must raise profit” assumes utilization, price, costs and demand.

Official company disclosures are usually the starting source. Investor.gov describes an annual report as containing corporate and financial information.[14](#source-valuation-annual-report) Disclosure duties depend on jurisdiction; U.S. form names are not universal requirements. Check period, group perimeter and audit qualifications, not only management presentation.

Connect three financial pictures

Separate position, performance and cash movement. Position at a date shows resources and obligations; performance over a period shows revenue, costs and profit; cash movement explains receipts and payments. One document cannot replace the others.

Profit and cash may differ: a sale on deferred payment can precede cash, while equipment requires cash but may not be expensed all at once. In a fictional example, revenue is 120 million roubles, net profit 12 million, operating cash flow 8 million and equipment spending 9 million. The simple difference is −1 million. This is not a universal free-cash-flow definition; align components, debt and taxes.[16](#source-valuation-dcf)

Test sustainability

Compare several periods on a consistent basis. If group perimeter, reporting standard or presentation changed, record it before calculating growth. Separate one-off events such as an asset sale, revaluation or litigation payment; exclusion requires explanation. Show published results and an analytical adjustment with its changes, never presenting the latter as official reporting.

Check debt with maturity dates and financing terms. The same debt amount can create different problems under different maturities. If the schedule is unavailable, that is an analytical finding, not a reason to invent one.

From data to assumptions

Use three labels in the working note: “from document”, “calculation” and “assumption”. A reported product price is the first; calculated margin the second; expected future utilization the third. For each assumption, state the observation that would make you revise it.

End with value drivers and unknowns, not a mandatory buy or sell signal. Even a complete table does not remove future uncertainty.[11](#source-valuation-teaching) A useful result lets another person reproduce the reasoning, check the numbers and see where confirmed information ends and the model begins.

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Educational model; contract terms and applicable rules must be checked separately.

Source references retained: valuation-annual-report, valuation-teaching and valuation-dcf; anchors [11], [14] and [16] retained.

Educational material is not individual investment, legal or tax advice.